ガリーヴ氏による、「塩の罠から見るナポレオンとロシア軍」

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

As you see Russia had huge social tensions and divisions which could be easily played on. But Napoleon didn't. He thought he needs strong Russia as a tool in his continental blockade, and didn't want to disrupt it, turning it into chaos. He wanted to keep the machine intact pic.twitter.com/2KIj0zrWRH

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Another concern was ideological. Napoleon established a monarchy and now viewed any anarchic movements as highly problematic. He avoided weaponising mass discontent, even if he totally could. Peasants were making up that he wants to liberate them, because they were projecting pic.twitter.com/qkzlg7kvTg

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Napoleon aimed for an unreachable goal - alliance with Alexander. It was unreachable because Napoleon didn't have a salt to offer him. He had a salt to offer to the many discontent in Russia, but didn't, because he believed he can work out a compromise with Alexander (nope)

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

What would be the best salt strategy for Napoleon? 1. Freedom to the peasants 2. Freedom to the soldiers. You don't have to fight me, just go home and skip next 20 years of military service 3. Independence to minorities and the conquered 4. Equality to the Old Believers pic.twitter.com/qlArMGSpd4

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Jewish role in Russian revolution is discussed a lot, but it's largely a projection. Westerners project their own culture wars on Russia. Meanwhile the elephant in the room - dissidence *within* the Orthodox Church is ignored. It's difficult to weaponise in Western culture wars pic.twitter.com/0e1AE7YKvU

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

So now let's get to the policy recommendations for the current conflict. The best strategy would be playing on internal divisions which are enormous. Giving salt to the ones who need the salt you have and not fantasising about deescalation with the ones who don't

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

First. Make surrender of Russian troops in Ukraine as easy and lucrative as possible. Ukrainians understand it and try to work on that. They try to lure Russian soldiers to surrender "to save their lives", they're offering pilots a million usd to turn over their jet to Ukrainians

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

I don't think it gonna work well. First, Slavs don't really believe in Slavic financial guarantees. If it was let's say a Swiss company offering money, it would have stronger appeal. Great strategy would be - offer cash for 1) turning over 2) destroying Russian military equipment

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

The very fact that you might get a lot of cash in hard currency for destroying a Russian missile system, adding sugar to the oil or doing other sabotage would very much destroy the trust among the troops. Especially regarding that many already look for the way out

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Another obvious question is - ok, I surrender. Now what? Honestly speaking, right now I don't see any attractive perspective. What you gonna do after, return to Russia where they investigate how and why you surrendered? Doesn't look that promising to be honest

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Some speculate about giving surrendering Russian soldiers refuge on the West. It could be a good idea, but I don't think it may really be organised soon. And in order to have an impact on the course of war the green corridor for surrendering Russians should be organised asap

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

A more realistic option would be negotiating with some warm countries with easy immigration policy (Colombia, Argentina, etc) and simply paying them to accept surrendered Russians. So they would get them some sort of visas + small cash for surrendering + a lot for active sabotage

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

I know that doesn't sound efficient moral crusade wise. But it absolutely can be efficient goal wise. With the conflict ongoing, much of the world would be in a deep economic crisis, and there will be warm countries with easy immigration policies desperately looking for cash

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Many Russian troops in Ukraine have very low motivation. Conscripts were sent by force. Many national guard paramilitary feel tricked into the war. When they transferred from the police to the newly created guard, they thought they're getting military benefits with no risk

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Cops thought they get military mortgage etc with no downsides. Instead they were sent to a bloodbath. Many started complaining that the entire reform was about "tricking cops into the war". If you watch this video with destroyed Russian convoy, you'll see why they want to escape pic.twitter.com/OVCUD3mLGc

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Finally, many of the "Donbass and Luhansk army" are also low motivated. In the jargon of Russian irredentists there there is such a word as twenty-five-thousanders, двадцатипятысячники. What does it mean?

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

On the early stages of Donbass war, it was launched my highly motivated fighters. Russian security apparatus, intelligence and many local volunteers. As it usually happens on wars, they ran of volunteers quickly. Their casualties are huge, while the supply is limited

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Fortunately for Russia, Donbass fall into humanitarian catastrophe. Most businesses closed, remaining like cpal mines, paid minuscule salaries among the rampant inflation. It was very difficult to earn your living. So Russians would pay 25 000 rubles for joining "Donbass army"

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

These people were called twenty-five-thousanders because they obviously joined for pay check, around 400 usd per month. They were looked down upon because they had lower motivation and honestly they'd prefer to collect the pay check and skip the fighting

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

This case shows first of all, that the Donbass crisis was manufactured and maintained by Russia. They portray it as a natural mass rebellion, but almost all of actual fighters were unmotivated ones who literally fought for food, because of humanitarian catastrophe Russia created

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Secondly, American military always exaggerate how easy it is to crush this or that group by force (with no salt offered) and underestimate how cheap it is to bribe them. As a rule, people who end up on war are poor (by standards of a region). There are few rich kids in trenches

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Thirdly, huge number of Russian military in Ukraine are low motivated. They don't want to fight. They would rather turned back and go to Russia, but that's not an option now. They would escape, but don't know where. Give them the way out. Give a green corridor to a *warm* country

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

Add a small cash payment for the fact of surrendering and large ones for documented sabotage/turning over the military equipment and you'll be surprised how quickly Russian fighting ability deteriorated, partially because of sabotage, partially by decline in mutual trust

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

I'll finish with a little known fact. Borodino Battle near Moscow was the single bloodiest day of the Napoleonic wars. Russian soldiers stood all day beating off one French attack after another. They lost 39 00 men, but didn't run away being gunned, shelled and charged by cavalry pic.twitter.com/91F8kfYcij

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

You know where Russian army lost more men than at Borodin? In France. After Russian army occupied France, soldiers realised that this is a far richer nation. And after Napoleonic wars it has few men in countryside. So you can easily find a girl wit HER. OWN. PLOT. OF. LAND.

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

In a rich country with few adult males who now how to farm their positions on sexual and economic market were great, far better than they could ever be in Russia. Bonus point, the country had no passport system, so you could just disappear and it would be hard to find you

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

And the army started disintegrating. It probably lost around 45 000 men due to desertion, much more than at Borodino. Tsar Alexander was very upset and asked king Louis if he could find them. Louis said sorry no - and Alexander marched out with remaining forces out of France asap

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

The same soldiers who stood to death against Napoleon when they had no way out, deserted in huge numbers the moment they saw they way out and advantageous perspectives after. So they voted by legs, ending Russian occupation of France quicker than planned

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

This should be taken into account when planning modern policies. If you want to influence people, you should give them salt. And you give it to those who *really* need the salt you have. Napoleon deluded himself he has salt Alexander needs, but he couldn't offer him anything

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

So the reasoning shouldn't go like "Cooperation with whom would be the most useful for me?" but "who desperately needs the salt I have and will need it for sufficiently long time?". These will be the only on whose cooperation you can truly rely

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

The West can very easily and very cheaply give salt to Russia military in Ukraine. It's way cheaper than sending military equipment there. It also can reasonably give salt to Russian officials many of whom now see their situation as desperate and hopeless

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

West can even give salt to Russian military and intelligence chiefs. It seems Putin didn't consult them about his invasion of Ukraine and dragged them all into existential war without their knowledge or approval. Many of them will be looking for way out and will cooperate

Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani

I just don't see which salt the West could give to Putin. Lift sanctions and resume trade? Well, he'll accept it, but now it'll just buy him time to re-orient to China. It won't influence his long term goals, it will just make meeting them way more realistic. End of 🧵